BCG says global payments revenue growth will slow to 5% a year through 2030
The consultancy’s annual report puts 2025 payments revenue near $2 trillion and says the industry must prove it can grow profitably as digitization matures.
By Tech CEO Daily Staff, Newsroom
· 3 min read
The news
Boston Consulting Group’s Global Payments Report 2026, published September 23, estimates global payments revenue at about $2.0 trillion in 2025, rising to nearly $2.6 trillion by 2030. That implies compound annual growth of about 5%, down from a historical average of 8%, the firm said.
BCG expects transaction-related revenue to grow about 6% a year and non-transaction revenue about 5%. North America remains the largest region at $842 billion in 2025 with roughly 5% annual growth expected, followed by Asia-Pacific at $515 billion and Europe at $315 billion. Latin America ($200 billion, 7%) and the Middle East and Africa ($98 billion, 8%) are projected to grow fastest.
The report, titled “The Burden of Proof,” says payments shareholder returns averaged 6% from 2022 to 2026, compared with 20% for the S&P 500. Payments Dive, summarizing the report, attributed the slowdown to a maturing shift to digital payments in developed markets, plus regulation, new payment rails and heavy competition.
BCG also sized the digital asset opportunity: roughly $2.3 trillion in crypto market value as of mid-2026, $260 billion in outstanding stablecoins and $38 billion in tokenised real-world assets. It urged payments companies to focus on pricing power, product innovation and AI, including infrastructure for agent-driven commerce.
The numbers
- Global payments revenue, 2025
- ~$2.0 trillion
- Projected 2030 revenue
- ~$2.6 trillion
- Expected annual growth to 2030
- ~5% (vs. 8% historically)
- Outstanding stablecoins
- $260 billion
Why CEOs should care
When a mature industry’s growth slows, providers look for revenue in fees, add-on services and pricing changes. Merchants and finance chiefs should expect processors, banks and networks to push bundled software, value-added services and new pricing structures, and should benchmark total cost of acceptance rather than headline rates.
Slower growth also raises the odds of consolidation and of providers leaning into newer rails such as stablecoins and account-to-account payments. That gives large payers negotiating leverage, but it also makes vendor stability worth checking before signing long contracts.
What's next
Watch third-quarter earnings from listed processors and networks for signs of the pricing and product moves BCG describes, and for how much revenue they attribute to stablecoin and agent-commerce services.
Sources
- ReportGlobal Payments Report 2026: The Burden of Proof— Boston Consulting Group
- ReportPayment revenue growth to slow— Payments Dive
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