The news
Stablecoins, tokenized deposits and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) put up to $230 billion in bank payments revenue at risk, according to Capgemini's World Payments Report 2027, released September 24, 2026. Capgemini says the risk sits in high-margin payment businesses.
Capgemini projects these instruments will account for about 4% of global payments volume by 2030. The revenue it sees at risk sits in foreign exchange spreads, correspondent banking (the chains of bank-to-bank accounts used to move money across borders), float income earned on money in transit, and transaction processing fees. The press release does not say whether the $230 billion is an annual figure or a cumulative one.
Capgemini groups stablecoins, tokenized deposits and CBDCs under the label "accelerated intelligent money," meaning money that can do more than move between accounts. A stablecoin is a digital token pegged to a currency such as the dollar; a tokenized deposit is a bank deposit represented on a blockchain. The firm says wide adoption could free up as much as $4 trillion now held in settlement and liquidity accounts.
The findings draw on a May-June 2026 survey of 1,110 large corporates and 300 banking executives across nine markets, including the US, UK, Singapore and the UAE. Among corporates, 74% described cross-border payments as slow, costly and unpredictable, and 57% said they lack access to live payment status, cash positions or transparent pricing. Respondents said 36% of their B2B payment volume already flows through non-banks.
Banks still start with an advantage: 71% of corporates said they would choose a bank over a fintech for tokenized payments at equal cost and quality. But nearly 60% said they would source stablecoin services from non-bank providers if their banks fail to keep pace. On the bank side, only 21% are actively scaling at least one of these instruments, and bank executives named tokenized deposits their top near-term priority for keeping funds on their balance sheets. Jeroen Hölscher, Capgemini's global head of payment services, said banks must decide what role they want to play.
The report arrived a day after Boston Consulting Group (BCG) released its Global Payments Market Outlook 2030 on September 23. As reported by Payments Dive, BCG projects global payments transaction revenue will rise from $770 billion in 2025 to $1.03 trillion by 2030, with annual growth slowing to 6% from 8% over 2019-2025. It cited changing regulation, new payment rails and fierce competition as pressures on providers' profits.
The numbers
- Bank payments revenue at risk (Capgemini)
- Up to $230 billion
- Projected share of global payments volume via stablecoins, tokenized deposits and CBDCs by 2030
- About 4%
- Funds in settlement and liquidity accounts that could be freed (Capgemini)
- Up to $4 trillion
- Corporate B2B payment volume already through non-banks
- 36%
- Corporates preferring a bank for tokenized payments at equal cost and quality
- 71%
- Banks actively scaling at least one such instrument
- 21%
- Global payments transaction revenue, 2025 to 2030 (BCG)
- $770 billion to $1.03 trillion
Why CEOs should care
For CFOs and treasurers, the two reports point to the same thing: the fees banks earn on cross-border B2B flows are under pressure, and banks know it. Capgemini's respondents average 11 banking relationships across 14 markets, with 34% of B2B volume crossing borders. Use the next mandate review to ask each bank for all-in foreign exchange pricing, real-time payment tracking, and a dated plan for tokenized deposits or stablecoin settlement. The survey suggests corporates will stay with banks at equal cost and quality, but many are ready to look elsewhere if banks fall behind.
For bank CEOs and boards, the at-risk revenue sits in high-margin lines, not in low-margin volume. Capgemini says the banks it classes as leaders expect to offset declining transaction revenue within 15 months, against 25 months for the rest of the industry. Boards should ask which revenue lines are exposed, how much float income depends on slow settlement, and whether the tokenized deposit program is funded and staffed or still a pilot.
For risk and security chiefs, moving payments onto new rails brings new questions: who holds the keys, how smart-contract code is tested, and what happens to funds if a non-bank provider fails. Any shift of payment volume to non-bank stablecoin providers should go through the same third-party risk review as a new bank relationship.
The bigger picture
The reports land as the industry gathers at Sibos, held September 28 to October 1, 2026, at the Miami Beach Convention Center, with a theme focused on digital finance for AI-driven economies. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on artificial intelligence in payment systems, including emerging models of agentic payments, according to the Sibos website.
Taken together, the numbers describe a slower-growing fee pool with new competitors at its most profitable edges. Capgemini's 4% volume projection for 2030 is modest, but the revenue it puts at risk sits in high-margin lines such as foreign exchange and correspondent banking, the same cross-border services that 74% of surveyed corporates called slow, costly and unpredictable.
What’s next
Watch for tokenized deposit and stablecoin settlement announcements from large banks during and after Sibos, and for whether banks respond to corporate demands with pricing changes or new real-time services. Treasurers should also ask Capgemini or their banks what time period the $230 billion estimate covers, since the press release does not specify it.
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